New Years Predictions 2011

Okay, I’m going to go ahead and do this now instead of waiting a week!  And because its an easier and shorter post to write than my impressions of Rift Beta (the short version: its a lot of fun).    So without further ado…

Five Predictions…

1.  We will finally get some news about the World of Darkness MMO from CCP /White Wolf.  I know we already got an announcement and a teaser trailer.  But let’s face it, we all knew it was coming anyway.  I mean some real news.  Like a website that shows us more than this.  This may be a safe bet, but remember that the only official word was that it would be absolutely not be before 2012.  That sounds alot to me like they are shooting for 2012 but aren’t sure they will make it.  But I can see the point, so lets add a part B  to this that reinforces my point – we won’t see a beta for this in 2011.

2.   2011 will show a decline in the number of WoW subscriptions.  Short easy, and to the point.  We might ask how we can track this, but I think it will actually be news that will get talked about.  I guess we’ll see.

3.  Star Wars: The Old Republic will launch in April.  There are alot of people divided on this – some say May, some in particular May 25th, for its significant (both A New Hope and Return of the Jedi released on that date), but I can’t see then losing two months of profits in the financial year.  This has clearly been a large investment, and they have been quick to promise investors a return.  Maxmium return will need maximum time, especially since that first month is usually free in MMO’s. Release in April and you get steady profits all year long.

4.  Vanguard will go F2P.  Okay, this is more of a hope than a prediction.  I have unfinished business in the world of Vanguard, and their version of the Druid is still hands down my favorite class to play of all time (though I’ve been able to recreate it to some degree in Rift, more on that later).  I think that the addition of DCUO to the Station lineup will probably help make this possible.

5.  Cryptic Studios will finally reveal what this is.  Because its copyright 2007, and it makes me itch.

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Bonus Thoughts…

Most Anticipated Release:  This is honestly a straight up tie between TOR and Rift.  I think both games bring some really need things to the  table.  And I have a hunch I will be buying collector’s editions for both of them.

My Least Anticipated Release:  DCUO.  In part because its being treated more as a console release.  Which is probably not a bad thing for its success.  But I enjoyed  Champions and HoX both, and I’m not a big fan of the IP (always been a Marvel guy myself).  Not sure this will be a huge hit, but I think it will be a nice niche game (which is what we need alot more of – just not at $15 a month each…)

My Most Desired Beta:  TOR.  I’m already in Rift, obviously,  so it falls to TOR, which is pretty much the one Beta I’m not in that I want to be in.

My Most Desired Industry Change:  Speaking of $15 a month subs…its time for a change.  The truth is, I can drop about $30 a month on games.  And I’m cheap, but lets say I’m average.  That means I can afford 2 games a month.  There are more than 2 good games a month out there.   And there has to be something between F2P and $15 a month.  I thought maybe APB was headed in the right direction with the ability to buy hours.  There are a lot of games I’d love to play once or twice a month, but I just don’t have time to commit to.  I wouldn’t mind paying $5 for a pack of hours.  EQ2’s passport plan is similar, but its on and then its gone.  The big thing here is that alot of us get hooked on games for a few months and then drift to something else.  Letting us do a small buy in puts you on the map for those hooked in times, and keep us around after they are gone. 

Something to think about…

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5 thoughts on “New Years Predictions 2011

  1. Ghanur

    1. WoD – the Beta starts this year, january this year –> the new character generator they implement in EVE Online *gggg*

    2. Giving out a free 10 day trial a week after release speaks for itself – less packets sold than expected.

    4. Waiting… I do have a character there too. Bought the collectors edition back then…

    5. Looks like a remake of the series “Lost Worlds” from Origin *eg*, but it’s Cryptic, so I don’t care *g*.

    1. Interesting stuff Ghanur!

      I bought the Vanguard collector’s edition too – from GameStop for $20 after the game tanked. (-; The soundtrack is great, and the art is amazing.

      Lost Worlds eh? I hadn’t heard of it, but I will check that out…

      1. Ghanur

        I remembered the titel wrong… getting older *g*

        One game was “The Savage Empire” (1990), Series was “Worlds of Ultima”

    2. It should be noted that the 10-day trial has been in place for WoW for quite some time; I started on a 10-day trial years ago. Also, it’s hardly because of fewer boxes sold; Blizzard broke the single-day PC game sales record with Cataclysm.

      As someone who plays WoW and accepts that the primary reason is that his friends play it (over say, Fallen Earth, which I would love to be playing); I think you’re off the mark a bit with #2. As WoW continues to become more of a social norm (I ran into two “regular” people in Best Buy yesterday and had an active conversation about it) – Blizzard’s Real ID plan truly focused around this – I think they’ll actually pick up some of the old players again, as well as new people tiring of FarmVille and the like.

      Then again, China might decide to ban Cataclysm and you’ll be totally spot-on. 🙂

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