Pondering Win Rates

So in a recent developer Q&A, SerB, head cheese for World of Tanks, stated that the only “stat” that they considered an indicator of skill was overall win rate.


Clearly, there are some good arguments both for and against that.  On the one hand, in a matchmaker that is not skill based, its easy to get one a roll of knuckleheads.  My scores over the last sixty days have been in the 1500+ category for both basic efficiency and Win6 – yet, last night, I lost 6 matches in a row, and none of them were even close.   In one match I died without doing any damage at all.  On the other hand, I can understand the argument that good players will overcome bad ones, or will have the ability to (at least on occasion) “take over” a match.  I’m not in a place where I can do that consistently, but it does happen sometimes.


So I’ve been pondering my win rates.  The North American server average currently sits at 48.95% according to WoT Labs.  So looking at my stats, I’m in pretty good shape.  My overall win rate is 51.01%, even after last night’s debacles.  So that is good.   And I am clearly comfortable in a lot of my tanks.  Many of my battles are wrapped up in tier 8 tanks, because of my main premiums and because of how the XP curve tends to work.   So here is how that looks:




Pretty good eh?  Almost all of these are above the server average.  That’s pretty good.   And I am comfortable and confident in tier 7-8, whether I’m sitting at the top of the rung or on the bottom facing tier 10’s, I have a good idea of where to go and what to do.   But clearly, there is a weak point in my game.  Something bringing me down, or my average would be a lot higher.   And its pretty easy to find where that gap is:




And this picture sums up why I haven’t applied to any Clans yet for Clan Wars, something I have some interest in doing.  At tiers 9 and 10, my game is a mess.  And at some point, I just can’t blame that on teams of morons.   Its me.   I have no idea what it is either.  Do I tense up?  Are there just better players out there?   There is, at the high levels of the game, what seems to me a greater chance of running into platoons of good players.  Sometimes these are from one clan, sometimes they are allied clans.   In one match last night, there was a platoon of three unicums (top .1% efficiency), all of whom had win rates hovering around 70%.  Its hard not to feel like the game is over before it begins.  So I am wondering if my problem here is just that I am mostly a solo kid running in a platoon world.   There is a reason platoons are limited at three – and even there, they can themselves “take over” a match, sometimes even when the individual players aren’t all that skilled.


And then there is a little known stat that XVM has been pulling up lately – TWR.   I’ve read several translations of the Russian on the calculations of this stat, and as best I can tell, its an attempt to “normalize” your win rate by accounting for just such scenarios – what is the overall quality of the other team versus yours?  Now take that out – and assuming a level playing field, what is your win rate.   And here my numbers drop:  I stand at 48.18%.   Which XVM helpfully colors as orange.  Which is its universal symbol for “bad but not terrible.”  In other words, if both teams are equal, I will lose more than I win.  Ouch.


And I do kind of get where that comes from.  I seem to do far better supporting a good player than “leading” a team by being that good player.  Maybe I’m just not there yet skill wise – at 5,600 battles, I am still wet behind the ears in the grand scheme of things.   And there are two ways to fix that, as I see it.


One, I can put my nose to the grindstone, especially with my tier 8’s, and just try to watch and learn.  For the time being, shelve my 9’s and 10’s, until I feel more comfortable in my abilities in them.   I can use the test server (when its not so insanely overloaded) to work on those 9′ and 10’s between updates, honing my skills off the books.   Then I can apply to a good clan and have the resume to be accepted.


Two, I can go ahead and join a clan now.  I probably won’t get into the clans I would most like to join, as I don’t have the skills yet – but a decent clan would provide me with some training and comfort level, and of course, allow me to play more in platoons than solo.  Then if I feel the desire later on, I can always apply to another clan.


I’m torn at the moment on which to do.   Input is welcome and invited.